Over the past two days we’ve reported on the clash within Iran’s leadership—between the government and the Revolutionary Guards—over whether to launch another strike. Now, according to information obtained by Channel 14 News, it appears the Revolutionary Guards are beginning to reassess the need for an attack.
1+One goal of a military move from Iran’s perspective was to influence the U.S. midterm elections, damage Trump politically, and bring about a Republican defeat. But Iranian officials are now looking at recent polls and assessing that the Republicans may lose even without their intervention. So the question is being raised there: Why launch a strike now, risk losing more senior officials, and absorb additional economic and military damage if the same goal can be achieved without attacking?
As a result, according to what we’re able to understand, the Revolutionary Guards are now weighing the option of forgoing a strike at this stage. I want to emphasize this is the current assessment, not a final decision, and things could change at any moment. But there’s another very important point here: while all these discussions are taking place, according to our information, the Iranians are working quickly to restore their capabilities—both in the military sphere and in the nuclear sphere.
1+In other words, even if they ultimately decide not to strike now, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re changing direction. They may simply understand that time could be working in their favor right now.