After counting roughly 95% of the votes in the Likud primary, the party’s list for the next Knesset is taking shape Tuesday morning. When factoring in the weighted results from the national vote, reserved slots, and regional representatives, Benjamin Netanyahu tops the list with Eli Cohen right behind him. Senior party figures are expected to fill out the top spots alongside new candidates, while some veteran names have been pushed to lower positions.
Vote counting in the Likud primary is nearing completion, and with about 95% tallied, a clearer picture of the weighted Knesset list is emerging. Unlike the ranking that appears in the national vote results alone, this calculation also includes reserved slots and positions designated for regional winners. According to the current picture, Benjamin Netanyahu will head the list, followed by Eli Cohen in second place. The third slot is reserved, while Israel Katz is expected to land in fourth. The fifth spot is also reserved. The emerging top tier is made up of Likud veterans: Amir Ohana is expected to be sixth, Yariv Levin seventh, and Miri Regev eighth. After another reserved slot in ninth place, Ofir Katz is expected to round out the top ten.
The 11th spot is also designated as reserved, with one possibility at this stage being Oren Dubronsky, though the identity of the person slotted there is not yet final. He’s expected to be followed by Yoav Kish in 12th place, Miki Zohar in 13th, and Almog Cohen in 14th. Gideon Sa’ar is shaping up for 15th place, Amihai Shikli for 16th, and Dudi Amsalem for 17th. The next slot is also reserved, with the possibility that Haim Katz will be placed there, though this too is not yet a final determination. Further down, Moshe Saada is expected to land in 19th place, Tali Gotliv in 20th, Shlomo Karhi in 21st, and David Bitan in 22nd. Bitan’s result is particularly notable given the battles that surrounded him during the primary period—according to the current picture, he’s holding onto a realistic spot on the weighted list.
Boaz Bismuth is expected to reach 23rd place, followed by Nir Barkat in 24th. Barkat’s position is one of the striking data points in the emerging results, after being pushed from the top tier to the lower end of the realistic spots. Among women, Miri Regev continues to hold the highest position and is expected to land in eighth place. Tali Gotliv is shaping up for 20th place, while Gila Gamliel reaches 25th. Further down, Keren Atias Bublil is also expected to enter—she’s leading in the “new woman” slot and is shaping up for 34th place. Atias Bubil is a candidate backed by David Bitan, and her success adds another layer to the result he recorded in the primary. After another reserved slot in 26th place, several regional winners are expected to be integrated. Erez Tadmor is shaping up for 27th place, immediately followed by Shlomo Lerner in 28th. The 29th slot is designated for another reserved position. Moshe Binyamin Peretz is expected to reach 30th place and Shuki Ochana 31st. Further down, Ze’ev Elkin is shaping up for 32nd place, Amit Halevi in 33rd, Keren Atias Bubil in 34th, and Avihai Boaron in 35th.
Thus, after weighting the various slots, a significant gap has emerged between the position some candidates received in the primary and the spot where they may ultimately appear on Likud’s Knesset list. The national vote results in Likud are only the first step toward determining the order of candidates. After ranking the contenders, the spots designated for reserved slots, regional representatives, and representation guarantees are integrated among them, so each such slot pushes the national candidates further down the ballot.
The impact is particularly noticeable in the case of senior figures like Nir Barkat, who, according to the current weighting, reaches 24th place, while candidates who won in the regions are integrated further down through the slots set aside for them. In terms of female representation, a clearer picture is also taking shape: Miri Regev is the most senior woman on the emerging list, Tali Gotliv and Gila Gamliel are integrated after her, and further down, Keren Atias Bublil enters through the new woman slot.